What’s Going on with MoviePass?

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MoviePass’s parent company Helios, and Matheson (HMNY) has taken a beating in the stock market as the negative articles, stock bashing, and short selling continued last week. MoviePass CEO, Mitch Lowe said that the company spends about 21.7 million per month and only has 15.5 million dollars in cash remaining, but something doesn’t make sense.

Verizon Is The Second Largest Shareholder!

A few weeks back, Verizon Wireless purchased 9.6% of outstanding shares in HMNY making them the second highest shareholder next to Helios, and Matheson CEO, Theodore Farnsworth. Earlier in April, HMNY also purchased Moviefone for $8.6 million dollars.

Why Buy Moviefone?

Moviefone has about 7 million users which MoviePass can now acquire, but I haven’t seen any signs of ownership or affiliation with MoviePass on the Moviefone website. If MoviePass could gain at least 4.5 million new subscribers from Moviefone’s 7 million users, it would bring them close to 6-7 million subscribers in the next 6 months.

MoviePass And AMC 

MoviePass is trying to come to an agreement with AMC theaters. MoviePass generated an extra $2 million in business for AMC every week since AMC decided to add MoviePass’s subscription service to a few of their most popular theaters. According to the executives at MoviePass, they simply want a percentage of AMC sales, but AMC CEO Adam Aron has yet to budge on the agreement.  Aron also states that MoviePass’s business model “unsustainable”, which is one of his biggest issues with the company.

What’s Possible?

Let’s say the average price for each MoviePass subscriber comes down to about $8.95 for each of their 2.5 million subscribers, which totals $22,375,000 if you subtract their spending of $21.7 million they have an estimated $675,000 left every month. If their subscriber base grew to 3 million from 2.5 million subscribers since last month, they would collect about $26,850,000 leaving them with a revenue of about $810,000 a month. The future for MoviePass is uncertain, but there are over 2 million consumers who enjoy being able to finally go to the movie theater for a fraction of the price.

If the CEO of AMC decides to come to his senses and sign a commissions agreement, or partnership with MoviePass the stock may reward many optimistic investors. If the company survives long-term (10-15 years) they may even be able to open their own theater franchise, slapping AMC in the face!

This post is based on my own analysis and research. Always remember to pay attention to the news along with your own research. Trade at your own risk.

Thank you for reading!